Abstract: Infectious disease surveillance records over many decades provide a remarkable description of temporal and spatial patterns of epidemics. I will discuss some examples of such times series, with special emphasis on incidence of childhood infectious diseases (such as measles and chicken pox) over the last century. I will explain how simple mathematical models can be used to understand puzzling changes in epidemic patterns, and how mathematical analysis might lead to the discovery of more effective strategies for control or eradication of persistent diseases.

Refreshments at 4:30 in 657 Rhodes Hall.